四億死亡‧証實與證僞‧火化爐之數量級推算‧「強大的疾病」與推特粉絲感謝信:我幫了川普?‧從「六四」開溜到坦然入獄‧我爲何被法輪功吸引:從「假說」到「定理」‧四億三退數怎麼來的‧法輪功爲何不推翻中共?

對不起,很久不做視頻了。先給大家拜個年!祝大家新年平安、向善得福! 今天的話題主要圍繞兩個近日很熱事件:法輪功創始人說中國疫情三年死了四億人,可能嗎?

#疫情 #四億死亡 #法輪功

三退網站網址: https://tuidang.epochtimes.com/ (曾經入過黨團隊的請萬萬要退出,不爲中共站臺、陪葬。萬一是假的,您不損失任何東西,萬一是真的,您卻沒聽,損失的將是……寧信其有吧。)

发表在 Commentaries 時評 | 留下评论

你認為李洪志老師講的每一句話都是對的嗎?」

(曾錚按:我1月27日發布了視頻「评王局拍案之《我如何看待法轮功?》:五分钟证明他的逻辑事实错误 他的推论为何也错?我来「揭密」法輪功的组织和行动模式 法輪功会变成另一个共产党吗?」。下面有人留言問:「你認為李老師講的每一句話都是對的嗎?以下便是我對此留言的回答,供有興趣的朋友們參考。」

怎麼說呢,李洪志先生說的話,有時候表面上看是互相矛盾的。如,他說, 「修煉本身並不苦,關鍵是放不下常人的執著。」( 《精進要旨》〈真修〉》)。然後他也說過, 「我說人修煉不就是個苦嘛。」 ( 《美國法會講法》〈紐約法會講法〉 )。所以呢,看他講的東西,不能一句一句去扣字眼,不是這樣看的。他講了這麼多年,是講一個理,你要看這個理是什麼,整體上你願不願意相信。

再比如,有一次李洪志先生講法時,有一個人問:我相信真善忍,但不相信神佛的存在,我能修煉嗎?李洪志先生回答說,能修煉(大致意思,沒找到原文。)。

如此說來,李先生並不要求你信他講的每句話,你連神佛都不相信,也可以從信真善忍開始煉。

再比如,李先生在 《轉法輪》中談到現在宇宙中發生的變化,我們看不到,「 現在天文學家看不到,是因為我們現在用最大的望遠鏡去看的時候,看到的光景是十五萬光年以前的事情。」 從人的物理學上對「光年」的定義,李先生在此用錯了,他當成時間用了。

但是,我看到這裏時,並沒有被這個概念的「錯誤」用法而難過,我覺得我明白他想說的是,因爲光的「行走」需要時間,離我們十五萬光年那麼遠的地方發生的事情,我們要十五萬年以後才能看到。

所以,我覺得,看李先生講的東西,不要糾結表面字眼或一句話,他講的是一個很大的理。他自己也說過,他沒學過高能物理, 「其實要比起常人中的學問呢,我還覺的很自愧不如。」(《 悉尼法會講法》 

又:後來有弟子就這個「光年」的使用問題在法會上問過李先生,他解釋了,這裏我就不貼了。但是,我可以告訴你,我從他的回答中可以看出來,我當初的理解沒有錯。他就是講一個時間的概念。他說: 「我講天體時用了時空概念的距離來講了所需用的時間。在同等層次中可以講距離。」(《 美國西部法會講法 》)

然後他講了別的,更大的事情。我這裏就不貼了。

總體我的理解是,人以「光年」計算距離,前提是光速和距離都是不變和恆定的,但是, 「從洪觀到微觀那個距離的概念是隨著空間和時間的差異發生著變化。」 (《 美國西部法會講法 》)

也就是說,在不同層次的空間,時間並不是恆定的概念。距離可能也不是。穿越不同空間時,那個「光年」的算法都是錯的。

所以,我們以爲離我們十五萬光年那麼遠的東西,要等十五萬年才能看見,但是,因爲光經歷不同星球,那個時間是變化的,所以用不了十五萬光年就看見了。 這也是李先生講的,原話是這樣的:

「但是時間它又是極其複雜的。不同空間有不同的時間,再有更大的環境有更大的環境時間,更大環境裏邊還有獨立的各種不同的小的時間,就是極其複雜的因素。我們通常說它是時空,在不同的空間中有不同的時間概念。

「現在人類、現在科學家所說的那個星球距離我們這兒十五萬光年,我也只不過是借用他這個人的思維概念來對你們說清楚一件事情。其實這個說法都是錯的。不同的星球周圍有它自己一個場,它有自己的時間。不同的星球、離我們地球和我們地球空間的距離上也存在著不同的環境,不同的環境的時間上也存在著差異。在地球和其它看的見的星球存在的這個空間當中,按照現在的速度計算,那根本就是不準確的。從一個星球到另一個星球其速度不是一個,而是不同的範圍都有一個不同的時間的場,也可以說成時空。它開始放射的速度是相當快的,唰 — 到地球越來越慢,它是這樣的。它進入不同的空間場時,它還會出現忽快忽慢、忽快忽慢的。現在的科學很多東西它認識不了。」(《長春輔導員法會講法》))

他在《 瑞士講法 》( )中還說:

「這個空間就是現在人所知道的這個速度有更大的能量,人沒有發現,也利用不了。甚麼最大呀,最小呀,都是站在人的認識上,在人的空間和時間場的範圍之內的認識。在這個宇宙當中,沒有人認識的這個大、小的概念,所以你指宇宙中哪個速度快,那是由層次來決定的。比如層次很高的神講話的速度,有時講的很慢很慢的速度,那也比你的思維速度還快。我現在在這兒講的話,就剛才我說你是執著就這句話,剛剛過去,在一個空間當中它已經過去幾百年了,就這麼大的差距。宇宙太龐大了,時間場的不同構成了宇宙的複雜的空間。

「其實呢,『不受時間制約是最快的』,但對人來講,你永遠也不會真正理解這句話的真正內涵。用你的概念「宇宙中何種速度最快?」都是人的思想,人的認識。就包括我們現有這個空間,這個時間也不是絕對的。大家知道我在《轉法輪》中講,我說看到那個星體到我們這兒有十五萬光年的這樣一個差距,其實我也只是用現在科學人所能夠認識到的來講而已,實質上還不是那麼回事兒。為甚麼不是那麼回事兒呢?大家想一想,不同的空間存在著不同的時間,我們地球範圍之內有個時間場,一切都侷限在這個時間的範圍之內。那個人造衛星一旦超出我們大氣層的時候,它就是另外的一個時間了,絕對和地球的時間不是一個時間場。那麼在經過其它的星球的時候,又有它那星球的時間場。天體越往大去,它的時間、速度差異越大。

「銀河系中發生的事情你說十五萬光年才能看到,其實我告訴大家,說不定三、兩年你就能看的到。為甚麼呢?因為光的速度也是受時間場所控制的。穿越不同時間場的時候,光的速度「刷 — ,刷 — ,刷 — 」就變的忽快忽慢,到我們地球這兒來的時候,又符合地球的時間場,就變的非常的慢了。你用地球人類所能認識的這個時間場去衡量宇宙的這個時間,根本就無法衡量的。人類對真理的認識,對物質的認識,對生命的認識,對宇宙的概念,對許多事物的認識都不正確,包括我們人的發展。」

還有,我在這期視頻中講到,李先生說過,「 你們就把我當作一個普普通通的人 。」

作爲人來講,李先生有人的侷限,比如,他也要吃飯穿衣睡覺,他的英文可能不太好,或者完全不能講英文,等等。但是,他講的法理,很多美國人也很服的。

我聽說過一個故事,不知是否爲真,說墨爾本有個人,原來是煉法輪功的,有一次李先生在澳洲去演講,他去聽了。然後他看見李先生演講完往外走時,沒看見一個玻璃門,不小心撞上去了。這個人從此就不修了。他理解不了,師父如果真那麼厲害,爲什麼沒看見那裏有個玻璃門。

我不知此事是否是真的。假如是真的,我不會因爲看見師父撞到玻璃門上就不修了。他在人中不是神,走路時撞到玻璃門上不算啥。

我希望我回答清楚了你的問題。

1/29/2023*

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发表在 Inspired by Life 人生感悟 | 留下评论

County in Sichuan Lost 22% of People. Two Personal Stories: Why Are Things So Different in China?

County in Sichuan Lost 22% of People. Two Personal Stories: Why Are Things So Different in China?

Hello, everyone! Welcome to. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.

I know the number of 400 million deaths in China has shocked many people. I myself was greatly shocked too. I must admit that I can’t prove this number is true. But, what many people haven’t realized is, we cannot prove that it is untrue as well. Only one thing is true: We don’t know the true numbers. So today I will present several other facts and estimations, and most importantly, I’d like to explain why it’s hard to use what someone knows about and has experienced in other countries to imagine, or make judgments about things in China. If you don’t know anyone from China it might be challenging to get an accurate idea of the unique differences. I’d like to share some of these differences with you. So make sure you stick around till the end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WnlHu4tGnc

Sharp Population Decline in 3 Counties in Sichuan Province

We talked about how it took the CCP 5 months to polish its 2020 population numbers in 2021. Why did it take so long in such an advanced big-data age? Because it is difficult to fake a whole set of everything without leaving some loopholes.

However, with some local governments, they don’t have to consider how to balance the overall figures. So when they release their population numbers, they might not have that big of a need to create fake ones.

So let’s check the population numbers of 3 counties in Sichuan Province. The data came from the local government’s own website. Some of the census bulletins have been taken down, but are still available via stored records on the internet, such as Baidu’s web snapshot.

So this is the 2020 resident population number of five counties in Bazhong (巴中市) City in Sichuan Province.  See the highlighted number in yellow. 521,875, that’s the population of Tongjiang County in 2020.

This is the table for Tongjiang County in 2019. At the end of 2019, there were 723,126 people on the household registration, but only 670.6 K permanent residents. So we will take this number for comparison purposes.

These are the numbers for three counties in Sichuan Province: Tongjiang County (通江县) , Nanjiang County (南江县), and Pingchang County (平昌县).

You can see for Tongjiang County, the population dropped from 670.6 K in 2019 to 521.9K in 2020. That’s a 22% drop.

In Nanjiang County (南江县), the population dropped from 670.2 K in 2018 to 467.6K in 2020, that’s a 30% drop.

In Pingchang County (平昌县), the population dropped from 790.4 K in 2018 to 658.6K in 2020. That’s a 17% drop.

Take Tongjiang County for example, the 670.6 K was the number at the end of 2019. The 521.9K was the number by Nov 1, 2020.  This is to say, in only 10 months, this county lost 148.7 K people.

You might say that some people might have left their hometowns to work in other cities. But remember, COVID broke out at the end of 2019, and at that time, because of the Chinese New Year and the lockdowns, many migrant workers chose to go back to their hometowns, and didn’t leave after they spent the New Year with their families.

See this screenshot from a Baidu search. The two reports in the red circle at the bottom were all from TongJiang government’s website, both published in Mar 2020, and both say that many peasants came back to Sichuan to farm, instead of going to Guangzhou to work.

The strange, and not too strange thing is, when I clicked on the two reports, what I got was the same thing, the report was not available. Why?

Anyway, this confirms the fact that farmers in Tongjiang County were going back to Tongjiang from other cities in 2020.

The title of the second report says this, “Tongjiang County has helped 46 K migrant workers to resume employment.” The report says that one villager called Pu Jiahe initially planned to go to Guangzhou to work, and was convinced by a village leader to stay, and would grow green peppers at home instead, etc.

So from these, we can reasonably say that the loss of 148.7 K, or 22% of people in 10 months in this county was mainly caused by the pandemic.

If one county could lose 22% of its population in 10 months, is it that hard to imagine that the entire country could have possibly lost 30% of its population in 3 years?

Cremators, Employees, Enterprises, and a Possible Death Number

Now, let’s check the numbers of cremators, employees in the funeral service industry, and funeral service-related enterprises in China.

These are the number from this official website. I have copied the website address and put it in purple color at the top, so you can check the numbers yourself.

These are the numbers of cremators in China, from 2010 to 2021. You can see that the number for 2021 is 7043.

These are the numbers of employees in the funeral service industry in the past 10 years. You can see the number peaked in 2015, and went down till it reached a new low in 2019. Then it jumped sharply to a new record high in 2021.

These are the numbers of registered funeral service-related enterprises in China from 2015 to 2022. It shows steady growth until 2021.

So if the number of cremators, employees, and enterprises all started to grow in 2019, it means that the funeral industry has been operating at its full capacity, right? Otherwise, you don’t need to buy new cremators and hire new employees.

So let’s do a most conservative calculation. Suppose each cremator only works for 8 hours per day. And each body needs 45 minutes to cremate.

So 7043 cremators can handle 27.42 million bodies a year.

Given the cremation rate is 58.8%, so the total death number is 46.63 million a year.

And in 3 years, this number is nearly 140 million.

But we all know that since Dec last year, all the crematoriums have been overwhelmed. They have been operating 24 hours a day, and sometimes several bodies were cremated together. So the actual cremation number could be doubled, or even tripled.

Well, that’s a little bit of calculation based on the cremator number.

Instinctive Reaction and Rational Thinking

When people heard the number 400 million, the first reaction could be it is too hard to believe, or this is just impossible. For many people, this might be either an instant and instinctive reaction, or a judgment based on their current knowledge and experience.
I think the main reasons why many people find this number hard to believe are: 1. It is impossible to hide such a large number of deaths. 2. It is impossible for society to maintain normal operation with so many people dying.

Well, for the first reason, I discussed in my last show how the three main channels to gain information are blocked. So it might not be that hard for the CCP to hide things from the world. Don’t think it is impossible.

I remember in the days when the Internet first thrived in the world, people were hopeful that the internet would bring free information and thus freedom and democracy to Chinese people, as the foundation of the internet is that everything is inter-connected, and there is no way to block information on the internet.

Well, after only some 20-30 years, the CCP proved to these people that they were wrong. The CCP can cut Chinese people off from the internet outside of China, and create a closed environment with the Internet for Chinese people.

So don’t assume that the CCP is not able to cover up the deaths of 1/3 of the population.
The second basis of disbelief is: Society won’t be able to operate with so many people dying.

Well, we all know that it was widely reported that as many as 75% of Twitter employees planned or threatened to leave the company after Elon Musk purchased it.

This report says 1200 employees left Twitter.

My point here is, if the media has not talked about this, and you don’t know any Twitter employees or their friends or relatives, although you are using Twitter every day, will you feel or know that so many people have left Twitter?

No, you won’t. Twitter is still operating well after losing so many people.

A popular Chinese language YouTuber, professor Zhang Tianliang at Fei Tian College, also shared his personal experience in his show. He said he once worked for the IT department at a hospital in China. There were about 20-plus people in his department when he first started to work there. But after a while, many people left. At one point, only 5 or 6 people remained. So they became extremely busy. But they managed to maintain normal operations, and people outside his department knew nothing or very little about the fact that they had lost so many people.

So, the two main reasons for us to not believe the number may not be that reliable or solid.

On the contrary, if you think rationally, you may find that you have no way to disprove the number.

So the rational thinking is, we don’t know the true number, so we’d better not dismiss any numbers unless we can disprove them.

Two Logics, Two Worlds

Next, I’d like to talk about 2 personal stories to demonstrate why one can’t use what he or she knows from the western world to judge or imagine things in China.

The first one is very recent.

The other day when I tweeted this video showing many people lining up outside a crematorium with coffins,  someone left a comment, saying “If they have coffins why are they lining up to be cremated?”

I simply replied, “They have a coffin, but they don’t have grave land. Grave land can be very expensive. Most people can’t afford that. Watch this.”

Then I posted a video showing people in Shenyang City digging holes in the ground and selling them for 20-30 K each.

Perhaps many people don’t know the living conditions and environment in China.

Many years ago, in 1997, I was still living in an apartment in Beijing.

We threw away the trash through such a hole that went all the way down to the ground level, to the trash bin there. There was no requirement that we separate recyclable items.

But there were people like him who traveled through apartment buildings and collected paper boxes, books, and other recyclable items. Actually, we sold those things to them, and they would then sell them to factories at a higher price. So these people made a living out of this.
Anyway, I had a large amount of not-too-good books, which I wanted to get rid of. I didn’t want to sell them, as I didn’t want other people to read them. So I decided to destroy them.

I first tried to soak them in water. But I didn’t have big enough containers to hold all the books. I later tried to burn them in the hallway next to the garbage outlet and then throw them down the hole. However, that almost caused a fire inside the garbage bin on the ground floor, and somebody protested loudly against it.

What could I do? Later I had to put all these books inside my car, drove dozens of miles away from the city, and finally found a place where I could burn these books without causing any trouble.

If I didn’t have a car, and had to take a bus to travel away from the city, that would be more of a hassle.

Anyway, my point here is, even trying to burn a bunch of books was a big challenge in a city in China, so how can you easily deal with dead bodies?  City people don’t have one inch of land on which they can bury anything.

Another story happened many years ago.

You know, I escaped from China to Australia in 2001 after being nearly tortured to death in a Beijing Female Labor Camp for practicing Falun Gong. I later gained refugee status from the Austrian government.

In 2004, I finished writing my memoir about what happened to me in China and especially in the labor camp.  And the title of the book is “Witnessing History: One woman’s fight for freedom and Falun Gong” in case you’d like to take a look.

Before the book was published, my publisher had an editor edit the manuscript I submitted. There was such a sentence in my book, “In 1981, I moved from Hanwang Town to Mianyang City with my father. ”

Without consulting me, my Australian editor crossed out the “father” and changed it to “parents”. So the sentence became “I moved from Hanwang Town to Mianyang City with my parents. ”

In her opinion, if I moved from one city to another, I should have moved with my parents instead of with my father. The whole family should move together. So she thought I might have confused “parents” with “father” because my English was not good enough.

I said to her, no, please change parents back to father. She did not know, in China, at that time, anyone who worked for a state-owned workplace needed the government’s permission to move. My mother didn’t have permission. So she couldn’t move with my father.

I have two sisters. So my younger sister stayed with my mother in Hanwang, while my elder sister and I moved to Mianyang with my father. Until I left Mianyang for Beijing for my university education in 1984, my mother was still in Hanwang. It took her 4 years to get permission to join my father in Mianyang.

So that’s the reality in China. So it’s not that my editor could correctly edit my book only based on her English skills. She could get something wrong simply because she wasn’t familiar enough with Chinese society, and make judgments based on her own life experiences in Australia.

I know many experts say that millions could die in China during this wave of the pandemic. All of their models were based on figures from other countries. So their bases could be all off, to begin with.

People sometimes say, there are two types of logic in the world. One is logic, another is CCP logic.

I totally agree with this saying. So to expand it a little bit, we can also say there are two kinds of worlds on the earth, one is the CCP’s world, one is the non-CCP’s world.

Do you agree?

Well, that’s all for today. Thank you very much for watching. Please don’t forget to subscribe to my channel if you haven’t. If you are already subscribed, please like and share my content, and double-check that you are still subscribed.

Also, if you could, please go to my website at jenniferzengblog.com, sign up for a membership, or make a donation to support my truth-telling efforts.

Thank you. See you next time!

1/19/2023 *

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发表在 Commentaries 時評, Journalism 我的報導 | 留下评论

China’s Population Declines For The First Time In Decades. Have 400 Million Died?

Hello, everyone! Welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.

Today I will talk about two related issues: China’s first population decline in 6 decades, and an astonishing death toll revealed by a low-key person who almost never talks to the media, but whom the CCP hates most. Mr. Li Hongzhi, the founder of the spiritual discipline Falun Gong, told the Chinese edition of the Epoch Times that 400 million Chinese people have died during the past 3 years. Is that possible? I will discuss this today.

China Records 1st Recent Population Decline

Today (Jan 17), the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s population was 1.41175 billion people at the end of 2022. And this was a decrease of 850 K from the end of the previous year. There were 9.56 million births — a record-low birth rate of 6.77 per thousand — and 10.41 million deaths.

So this is the first population decline since the Great Leap Forward movement in 1960, when tens of millions starved to death.

I will talk about the population decline and its relationship with the pandemic in a moment.

Have 400 Million Died?

Two days ago, on Jan 15, the Chinese edition of the Epoch Times published an astonishing report with an astonishing title: “Founder of Falun Gong: The CCP Covers up the Pandemic, Death Toll in China Hits 400 Million”.

I tweeted this report and a simple translation of several main figures in the report, and have received a lot of comments, retweets, and likes.

I read through the first 200 comments. Almost all of them are negative, saying that they don’t believe the numbers at all.

So today I’d like to talk about why I tweeted this article, and why it is important for us to know that we don’t know.

I don’t want to try to convince anybody, but I do strongly feel a desire to share what’s in my mind and heart, and why I took the risk of being called an idiot, a liar, to tweet about such a shocking report.

Three Main Informations Channels-All Unreliable, Blocked, or Only Fragmented

First of all, we must admit that we have no idea what the true numbers are at all.

The CCP was still saying that there were only 37 deaths in one month on Jan 8. Then, only 6 days later, on Jan 14, the number suddenly jumped to 59,938. From 37 to nearly 60 thousand, no explanation at all why the gap was so huge.

We usually have 3 channels to get data: the official statistic, media reports, and hearsay, or what you personally experienced, or learned from people around you.

But with the COVID-related numbers in China, none of the three channels are reliable. The CCP has been lying the entire time, and the media is not allowed to report the truth whatsoever.

In contrast to the first two channels, it is the third one, the hearsay, that gives us some fragmented facts. From various social media posts and videos, we can learn a little bit of something here and there.

However, every individual can usually only get access to a few facts or some hearsay here and there, which all have limitations.

So overall, we must, first of all, admit that we don’t know the numbers. Since we don’t know, we should not easily or readily reject any new numbers we hear. How can we say a number is NOT true when we don’t know the true number to begin with?

The capacity of Cremators in China

Secondly, let’s look at the numbers and capacity of cremators in China.

According to the CCP’s official numbers, in 2021, the year-end national population is 1.416 billion, with 10.14 million deaths. So the mortality rate is 7.18‰.

On March 18, 2022, the official website of the Ministry of Civil Affairs announced that the total number of cremated bodies in 2021 was 5.963 million, based on this calculation, the cremation rate in 2021 was: 5.963/10.14=58.8%

How many cremators are there in China? The official website of the Ministry of Civil Affairs announced that by the end of 2021, there were 7,043 cremation furnaces in the country.

Usually, 45 minutes are needed to cremate a body. Recently, almost all cremators in China are operating 24 hours every day. Sometimes several bodies are cremated together, sometimes bodies are discarded before they are fully cremated.

1. Warning. Graphic. At Zhumadian Xiangshan Crematorium in #Henan Province (河南驻马店香山火葬场), #China, human bodies were not thoroughly cremated and the remains were discarded. The man shooting this video also complains about the pollution. pic.twitter.com/f82YWC7jG5

— Inconvenient Truths by Jennifer Zeng 曾錚真言 (@jenniferzeng97) January 5, 2023

Let’s suppose the current wave of outbreaks will last 4 months, and one body is cremated every 30 minutes. Then how many bodies can be cremated in China?

It is 7043*24*2*120=40.57 million

As the cremation rate is 58.8%, so the total death number could be 40.57/58.8%=68.99 million.

So this is a rough number for the current wave of outbreaks over a period of 4 months. If the outbreaks have lasted for three years, then the number can easily surpass hundreds of millions.

Population Decline

Now let’s look at the population numbers.

We all know that China started to establish the “One Family, One Child” policy as a basic state policy in 1979. It is estimated that during the several decades this policy was in effect, as many as 400 million unborn babies were killed. In those days, having a second child could be regarded as a criminal offense.

So in those years, to stress the achievement of adopting the “One Child” policy, local officials and the CCP tended to underreport the population.

Former law professor Yuan Hongbing mentioned in his book “The Taiwan Crisis” that he learned from a senior official of the CCP’s Ministry of Civil Affairs that the actual population of China was 1.53 billion in 2005. But the CCP claimed then that China’s population was 1.3 billion. On the one hand, the CCP wanted to boast about its “success” with its “One Child” policy, on the other hand, it didn’t want to alarm the world. In 2006, the world’s population was 6.67 billion. If China had 1.53 billion, that would account for 23% of the earth’s population. The world might be alarmed by this number and raise concerns of a possible food crisis.

By the way, the book “The Taiwan Crisis” was first published in 2009.

I don’t know how many people still remember that in 2021, the CCP delayed the release of its 2020 census results on more than one occasion, and was only able to finally release the numbers in May. Usually, this number is released in January. I did a show to talk about this. Why did it delay the figures again and again? Because it needed to polish the numbers, and it took 5 months to polish the numbers for 2020. Why?

The CCP later said that its population was 1.41 billion.

However, as early as Nov. 16, 2020, a well-known demographer and author Yi Fuxian said that he projected the actual population of China in 2020 to be about 1.26 billion, and isn’t likely to exceed 1.28 billion.

In June last year, he insisted that China only had less than 1.28 billion people.

In July last year, a hacker claimed to have stolen personal information from the Shanghai police on one billion Chinese citizens. This is said to be one of the biggest data breaches in human history.

Yi Fuxian later said, this data theft on 1 billion Chinese citizens confirmed his view that China had less than 1.28 billion people. His reasoning is, if there were only 1 billion personal records in that database, it indicated that China had only 1 billion people.

An IT engineer also said that when one used the Elastic Search server to build a big data search system for the Shanghai Public Security Bureau, all the data needs to be sent to ElasticSearch for the system to analyze and sort. And only that way can one do a complete search. So the data was complete.

As a matter of fact, the database only contained information about 970 million people. That could probably be the true population of China.

So if China had 1.53 billion people in 2005, but only has 1 billion, or 1.28 billion people now, what happened to 500 million people between then and now?

Mr. Li Hongzhi also said in the Epoch Times report that “over 200 million people in China died during the SARS epidemic between 2002 and 2004. Years later when the CCP noticed the dwindling population, it abandoned its one-child policy and started encouraging couples to have a second or even a third child. ”

This is consistent with China’s family plan policy. The CCP first relaxed its “One Family, One Child” policy in Nov. 2013, and introduced a new policy, which allowed couples, who were both the only child of the family, to have 2 children.

Two years later, in Oct 2015, the CCP allowed all couples to have 2 children.

And in Oct last year, it allowed all couples to have 3 children.

8 days ago, a group of Chinese demographers led by Liang Jianzhang published “China Education and Population Report”. The report says that the excessive education burden is too heavy for families, and is the most important reason for China’s low fertility rate. So the report suggests abolishing the secondary school entrance examination and shortening the school year by 2 years.

What does this mean? It means cutting the current number of school years from 12 to 10, so that students can graduate from high school at the age of 16 instead of 18. Then they can quickly get married and have children.

The report has so far received a lot of public anger and criticism. It shows how desperate the CCP is to increase its sharply dropped population.

Death of Celebrities

I shared on Twitter the news of many celebrities’ deaths recently. I said that “celebrities’ deaths are more difficult to hide, as their workplaces or families usually publish the news to show respect.”

These are the numbers of celebrities’ deaths announced by Wikipedia.

In the first 10 days of 2022, only 12 Chinese celebrities died. In the same period this year, Wikipedia published 209 Chinese celebrities’ deaths. That’s 17 times the number of last year’s.

If the annual number of deaths in China is about 10 million during normal years, 10 million times 17 is 170 million. If this number is multiplied by 3, it is 510 million.

Survivorship Bias

Some people ask, is it possible that 400 million have died in 3 years? That’s over 365 K people per day. How can so many people disappear without being noticed by the outside world?

Well, first of all, dead people don’t talk. They won’t tell you that they have died.

Secondly, there are 2843 counties in China. So 365 K with 2843 counties, that is 128 persons per day. 128 persons in one county is not that terribly hard to imagine.

We know that about 14% of people in the former Soviet Union died during WWII. Did anybody outside of the Soviet Union feel much from the deaths then?

One might say it is nothing strange for people to die in a war. As a matter of fact, in human history, what’s caused the most deaths has been pandemics, not war.

Thirdly, let’s look at this table.

This is the per capita monthly income and the percentage of China’s population in 2019.

The top row shows that there were 5.46 million people in China who had less than a 0 yuan income in 2019, and that’s 0.39% of the population.

The second row shows that there were more than 215 million, or 15.42 % of people in China, whose monthly income was between 0–500 yuan, that’s less than $73.81.

And look at the two rows at the bottom in the red circle. These are people whose monthly income is above 5000 yuan, or $738. Only these people are the most likely to have access to the internet and a smartphone, and only these people are likely to have a voice on the internet and in public venues.

And these people only account for about 5% of the population. These people enjoy the best living standards and best medical conditions in China. And they might not accurately speak for the rest of the 95% of people, or even know what happened to them.

In the past two days, I tweeted quite a few cases of 3, or even 6 members of one family dying within 5 days or a very short period of time.

1. 3 members of 1 family died in 5 days: grandpa (in his 90s), dad (48 y/o), & mom (46 y/o). 3 boys left behind. Eldest one in hospital. Youngest boy 18 y/o. Neighbors tried to help
Vid shot on Jan 3, at Xiaoheba, Luwang Township, Yiliang County, Zhaotong, Yunnan Province… pic.twitter.com/LNtZLeHDuQ

— Inconvenient Truths by Jennifer Zeng 曾錚真言 (@jenniferzeng97) January 16, 2023

Another vid of the same case shows the eldest son rushed to the hospital in critical condition. pic.twitter.com/HzzXZZKOJO

— Inconvenient Truths by Jennifer Zeng 曾錚真言 (@jenniferzeng97) January 16, 2023

1. 3 coffins from the same family on the way to graveyard.
Story: father died, 48 y/o son rushed back from the army to deal with the funeral, died too before funeral was organized, then his mother also died.
Gov. document admitted 3 members of the same family died and… pic.twitter.com/avNM0JXpq3

— Inconvenient Truths by Jennifer Zeng 曾錚真言 (@jenniferzeng97) January 16, 2023

Back in 2020, there was a true case of 4 family members dying out within 15 days. As one of them was a 55-year-old movie director, whose name was Chang Kai, this case made media reports.

I also reported his story.

Again, Chang Kai’s story became known because he himself posted on social media about the deaths of his parents and sister before he died himself. If he hadn’t done that, perhaps nobody would know that this family had died out.

In China, there are about 509 million people living in the countryside. Whatever happens to these people, city people might be clueless. So who can make noise for these people? Probably no one.

Mr. Li Hongzhi also said, when the pandemic is over, 500 million people in China will die. I think this 500 million also includes the 400 million who have already died. So another 100 million will die.

Mr. Li didn’t disclose how he knew about the numbers. The reason I am talking about this is, if 500 million really die, how will that impact China, the CCP’s regime, and the Chinese economy?

If China really only has 1 billion people, instead of 1.4 billion now, how can its labor-intensive industries, as well as the real estate market sustain itself? All these will have a profound impact on the world.

We are really living in a fast-changing world. Maybe we need to prepare ourselves for even more shocking numbers and facts.

Well, that’s all for today. Thank you very much for watching. Please don’t forget to subscribe to my channel if you haven’t. If you are already subscribed, please like and share my content, and double-check that you are still subscribed.

Also, if you could, please go to my website at jenniferzengblog.com, sign up for a membership, or make a donation to support my truth-telling efforts.

Thank you. See you next time!

1/17/2023 *

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China
Covid 19
Covid 19 Crisis
发表在 Commentaries 時評, Journalism 我的報導 | 留下评论

卡通畫:大翻譯曾/詩:致曾錚

(曾錚注:2022年5月31日,推友 Gancheng Wang 發表 推文 並附此卡通畫:「『大翻译运动』如今如火如荼,让土共焦头烂额急得跳脚。曾铮是这场运动的急先锋,她在2020年大战御用学者翟东升,震动美中政坛,还因此受到人身威胁,但她毫不胆怯,继续揭穿土共的丑陋面目,真是一位可敬可佩的女英雄!」

我不敢自居爲「大翻譯運動」的「急先鋒」,因此當時未轉發此推文,或發表此卡通。

今日整理電腦,無意中看見這幅當時存下的獵茶人先生的畫作,心中感念畫家及推友,故此發表,以表謝意。

畫作發表後, Gancheng Wang 又贈詩一首:

致曾錚

庆丰祸国九重山,

万民如草苦何堪;

翻开掩盖昭于世,

巾帼神骏突阵前。)

1/8/2023 *

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Originally published at https://www.jenniferzengblog.com on January 8, 2023.

发表在 LIFE STORIES 人生故事 | 留下评论

簡評《阿凡達2:水之道》:「There is no story」‘Avatar 2: The Way Of Water’ Review: “There Is No Story”

Two days ago I saw a friend recommend “Avatar 2: The Way of Water” on Facebook, so yesterday I went to the cinema with someone to see it.

前兩天在臉書上看到有朋友推薦《阿凡達2:水之道》,昨天便與某人一起去電影院看了。

After watching it, I asked him: What do you think?

看完出來,我問他:你覺得怎樣?

He said: “It’s so long ……”.

他說:「好長啊……」

I immediately understood what he meant. He must not like this film, but because I said it was good and dragged him there, he was too polite to say directly that he did not like it, so he came up with “It’s so long……”

我立刻便明白了他的意思。他肯定是不喜歡這部片子,但因爲是我說不錯拖他去的,他不好意思直接說不喜歡,於是便來了一句「好長啊……」

In fact, I was very disappointed too. So I directly expressed what I thought, so that he didn’t need to feel embarrassed to speak about his disappointment. He echoed what I said, and ended with one simple sentence: “There is no story.”

其實我也是大失所望的,於是便把他不好意思說的話說了出來。他一邊附和,一邊又來了一句:「There is no story.」

I nodded, and thought this sentence could be served as Avatar 2’s “final judgment”.

就這一句話,應該就把《阿凡達2》給「蓋棺定論」吧。

Yes, there is no story, no substance, no human value, or anything that can touch people’s heart.

我不知道怎樣翻譯「There is no story」,才能準確表達他的原意。我想,他是想說,這部影片並無內涵,並無人文價值,並無引人入勝的故事情節吧。

Yes, I admit that the film has done a perfect job in terms of sensory “excitement”. The scenes in the sky, in the mountains and in the deep sea can be described as perfect and beyond reproach. The fantasy and magnificence of the “other world” that does not exist in the human planet, but was produced by computer technology,  does look so stunning, and so breath-taking.

是的,我承認,影片從感官「刺激」方面,已經做得非常完美了。天上、山林與深海中的情景,展現得可謂盡善盡美,無可指責。對於並不存在於人世間的「另外世界」的奇幻與壯麗,也利用電腦技術做得唯妙唯肖,讓人大開眼界。

However, these are about all the “good things” I can say about this blockbuster.

然而,這些,就是我能對這部大片所說的「好話」的全部了。

Computer technology and computer special effects that were introduced into the movie industry, have indeed brought a lot of new sensory enjoyment and stimulation, especially so at the beginning stage. They were so exciting, so new, and so inspiring.

電腦技術、電腦特效被引入電影之後,確實給人帶來了很多全新的感官享受和刺激,剛開始也讓人覺得挺新鮮,挺歎爲觀止。

However, with the appearance of “masterpieces” such as “Avatar 2”, I have to say that I’m afraid the computer technology and special effects might have been abused; and the path of relying too much on special effects and sensory stimulation to attract audience may have come to a dead end.

但發展到今天,出現了《阿凡達2》這樣的「巔峯代表作」以後,我不得不說,靠特效和感官刺激來吸引觀衆的電影之「道」,怕是已經走到頭了。

At least, for me, I have had enough of that. My sensory organs have been stimulated to numb; and I no longer want to have more such stimulation.

至少,對我來說,我已經受夠了,我的感官已經被刺激到麻木了,不再希望有更多這樣的刺激了。

Some people say that “Avatar 2: The Way of Water” has very deep philosophy in it, but I am afraid that I have to disagree with that too.

There are indeed several water-related lines in the film, such as there is no beginning, no end, no life, no death, etc. They sound quite philosophical, quite connotative. But unfortunately, these lines sound like just that they are just “borrowed” or “copied” from somewhere. They don’t belong to the movie at all, and they

cannot be integrated with the rest of the film, cannot become part of the “story”. So they sound awkward, like a reckless boorish man who has to recite some beautiful poems that he doesn’t understand.

有人說《阿凡達2:水之道》內涵很深,我也不以爲然。電影中有幾句與水有關的臺詞,如無始無終,無生無死之類,聽起來是挺有哲理、挺有內涵的,可惜的是,這幾句話,也不知是從哪裏抄來的,像個「外來貨」一樣,不能與這部影片的其他部分融在一起,不能成爲「故事」的一部分,倒顯得不尷不尬的,像個魯莽武夫非要掉幾句自己並不太懂的書包。

All in all, I still miss the old and good movies that are full of humanity, wonderful stories, and happy or sad romances,  that can touch people’s hearts or trigger them to think.

總之,我還是懷念以前那些充滿人文情懷,能觸動人的心靈,或引發人的思考的老電影、好片子。

The other thing is, it seems that “Avatar 2” cannot escape from the “fate” of what we Chinese call “adding a dog’s tail to the sable coat” either. Why do we have to “stretch” a  successful work and come up with a sequel? The “stretch” may be able to succeed commercially with the fame of the first episode. But artistically, at least, both that “someone” and I will turn around and forget it in no time. We probably won’t go back to the cinema again for a long time. After all, spending three hours just for sound and visual stimulation is not that wonderful an experience that we want to repeat.

還有就是,看來《阿凡達2》也很難擺脫「狗尾續貂」的「宿命」。許多成功的作品,非得硬要再「抻」出一個續集來,未畢能賣得了好。江郎才盡了就是才盡了,硬「抻」的話,藉助第一集的名氣,商業上也許能夠成功,但在藝術上,至少,我和「某人」這兩位觀衆,都會轉身就把它忘掉,並且可能很久都不會再光顧電影院,花錢買三個小時的聲光刺激了。

1/1/2023 *

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Originally published at https://www.jenniferzengblog.com on January 1, 2023.

发表在 Inspired by Life 人生感悟 | 留下评论

「隱士」

自從搬了新家後,一直在屋裏忙、歸置,前兩天終於覺得太久沒出門了,很想出去「疾走」一番。

於是立刻行動起來。裝上手機,戴上耳機,趁太陽正高立即出門。

美國的鄉下地方,似乎沒什麼人「散步」,也沒有可供「散步」的地方,只能沿著公路走。好在公路上車很少,倒不覺得多麼可怕。

兩個狗子看我要出門,興奮地直叫;真出門以後,三心二意跟了我沒多遠,就跑到馬路對面一家人的草地上消失了。

我知道這種鄉下長大的狗子,「野外」生存能力很強,倒也不用操牠們的心,於是荒無一人的公路上,就只剩下我一人疾走。

走了沒多遠,來到一個交叉口,橫著的那條,是條稍大一點的公路,而直著延伸出去的那條,卻是條窄窄的土路。

於是毫不猶豫選了土路走過去,完全就是荒野了。走了不到半小時,「山下」居然赫然是個大湖,而且有條小路通向湖邊。

也不知這小路是否是私產。反正左右無人,就自己老實不客氣的走下去。

湖邊的半山腰上,有個小木房子,房子旁邊還有燒烤爐,看起來是誰的度假屋?

度假屋裏桌椅牀鋪俱全,就是沒有人。於是我左左右右、上上下下地照了一圈照片,再沿著來路上山,疾走回家。

我整整走了一個小時,連半個人影也沒見到……

這樣安靜的山野與時光,全部屬於我。對於我這個「城裏人」來說,真是太奢侈了。

恍惚中也想:我怎麼混著混著,就變成「隱士」了?在這種前不著村,後不著店的地方呆著,我這算是「大隱」,還是「小隱」?

我沒有答案。照片中的山水如此之安靜,我「疾走」、拍照時的心境也如此之安詳,完全符合「隱士」的定義。

可是,我的「隱士」時光,僅限於我給自己規定的一小時疾走時間。疾走完畢,回到我家中的「辦公室」、攝影棚,我又變成一個新聞世界中的「弄潮兒」了。

我不知是怎樣的機緣讓我變成了一個「隱居」的「弄潮兒」。一方面,新聞的世界中熱點與大事一個接一個,而我每天也必須「追逐」熱點;但另一方面,由於空間的「遠離」,我又像是看鏡花水月一樣,隔著一層無形的「膜」在看世間的風雲變幻。

理智上,非常清楚我們處於一個什麼樣的時代,還將經歷一些什麼樣的事情;然而情感上,卻不知不覺中有了一種「遠離感」。這一切,與我相關,又與我無關。

也許,這正是在這樣的時代和時刻,我所需要擁有的心境和狀態?

成爲「隱士」,並沒有影響我做事,相反,我最近的推特視頻觀看量和關注量,都在屢創新高。有時候有新聞大事發生時,一天之內會接到好多採訪請求,讓我應接不暇。

只不過,我可能再也無法回到「城裏」和人羣中去了。

也許我命中註定,就該是個孤獨的「隱士」。

好在,我心安然,並不孤單。

12/31/2022 *

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发表在 Inspired by Life 人生感悟 | 留下评论

In Memory of Comrade Li Jianhua 紀念李建華同志

On February 15, 2022, a large number of people lined up for appointments outside the funeral home in the eastern suburbs of Beijing. Screenshot from Taiwan ET Today. 2022年2月15日,北京東郊殯儀館大爆滿大批人在門外排隊預約。東森影片截圖

In Memory of My Uncle: A Personal Story of How I Struggle to Get Cremation Service in Beijing

发表在 LIFE STORIES 人生故事 | 留下评论

冬日初雪

昨夜一場冬夜初雪後,今晨起來,「 密林深處 」,儼然童話世界,像極了小時候看過的明信片。於是趕快拍些照片。

掛滿了冰棱的,其實是個暖房,如果妥善經營,應該能瓜果滿屋,隨吃隨摘吧。

雪地裏有兩個狗狗在撒歡,趕緊舉手機拍下,仔細一看,那個小黃狗原來正在「辦事」,不想被我的相機抓了個「正著」,想想些好笑。

鄉下的狗,跟城裏的也不一樣,沒事兒就是在外面撒歡的。據說這兩條狗,能配合默契的獵殺兔子呢。不知我是否有一天能見識一下牠們「打獵」的風采。

以前在城裏時,能到哪兒無人踩過的雪地,會像撿了大便宜似的,「嘎吱、嘎吱」地留下自己的腳印,覺得很痛快、很爽。在這無人的鄉間,滿「世界」都是你的,愛踩哪兒就踩哪兒,反倒沒那麼想踩了 — 倒是拍點照片才是「正事」。

12/12/2022 *

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Originally published at https://www.jenniferzengblog.com on December 12, 2022.

发表在 Inspired by Life 人生感悟, LIFE STORIES 人生故事 | 留下评论

煙火氣息

搬到「鄉下」 ,另一個令我這個「城裏人」感到新奇的就是,原來這裏的好多房子,是靠燒木頭取暖的。

這裏到處都是森林,但要自己伐木,似乎也有點「過」了,所以木頭還是買來的。有專門做這種生意的,你打個電話,他就送一車來,倒在院子裏,好大一堆。好在這種「鄉下」地方,最不缺的就是地,屋子外有的是空地,堆成小山的木頭卸下來先堆著,再買塊特大塑料布蓋上,也不怕下雨。

照理說,木頭都應該是用電鋸,按爐子的尺寸切割好的。但有時候情況不盡理想,來的木頭太大,就得自己再劈、再砍。

這不,今天週末,花了大半天時間在院裏用大斧頭劈柴,然後用大垃圾桶(新的,很乾淨)運到房子裏,堆在爐子邊。

今天是第二次劈柴,我已經學會了扔大斧頭。每當把大斧頭舉得高高的,再拼命碰下來時,都忍不住要「嘿」地叫一聲,似乎這樣才能把吃奶的勁兒都使出來。

雖然看不見自己,但感覺上,覺得自己的姿式挺威風的,畢竟,有近一半的時候,大木頭應聲就被劈成兩半了嘛。另一半的時候是劈歪了,完全沒命中目標,還得重來。

不過,聽著自己的那一聲「嘿」,卻突然明白了,爲何武俠小說裏常常用「一聲嬌喝」來形容女俠發出的聲音 — 真的是「嬌喝」而已,細細的,柔柔,甚至有些奶聲奶氣的,一點兒也不威風,完全配不上那把大斧頭……於是自己笑得彎下了腰去……

忙活大半天,終於砍夠了一小堆,目測夠一星期用的了。

再沒有力氣做飯,於是來到這家據說是不錯的「鄉村」飯店。趁等菜時,拍了張照片,在手機裏擺弄著,順手就轉成黑白片,然後覺得它頗有點美國西部片的味道了。

食物也不錯,特別是那個烤大土豆,讓我想起小時候有一次去農村參加婚宴時吃到的「世界上最好吃的東西」。

那天我不耐煩吃席,趁人不備溜到廚房,看他們用柴火在大鍋中燒飯、炒菜。

女主人看我去了,順手往爐灰裏埋了一苞玉米,等烤熟了拿出來給我,玉米表面有一點點黑,剛剛有點要糊了,但又還沒糊到發苦,只是香氣四溢而已。那真叫一個香啊!香得我連舌頭都快吞下去了。當時覺得,那是世界上最好吃的東西!

吃完「晚午飯」回到家中,看著爐子旁邊的堆得整整齊齊的「勞動成果」,心中頗爲滿意。

別小看這個小爐子,一套兩層樓的四居室,它能給燒的妥妥當當的暖。我想是房子的設計非常合理吧。爐子的煙道上有個溫度計,一般我就是把它燒到100攝氏度左右。從房子外面望來,煙囪裡永遠冒著裊裊白煙。

突然想起,中共的宣傳中總說什麼什麼被封城的地方已經解封了,充滿了煙火氣息。其實,咱這才是貨真價實的煙火氣息嘛!

12/10/2022*

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Originally published at https://www.jenniferzengblog.com on December 10, 2022.

发表在 LIFE STORIES 人生故事 | 留下评论