US Ambassador Branstad is Leaving China. Is a Diplomatic Break up Imminent?

On Sep 14, the US Embassy in Beijing suddenly announced that “The U.S. Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China Terry Branstad will retire from his position as U.S. envoy and depart Beijing in early October. The Ambassador confirmed his decision to President Trump by phone last week.”

It was said that the US didn’t notify Beijing about this, and it was a big embarrassment for the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP. 

Although most of the US media chose to use “Terry Branstad stepping down” as their titles to cover this news, many overseas Chinese commentators are saying that this is a very significant, even symbolic event in terms of US-China relations. It’s a pro-active move on the US side to “downgrade” its relations with the People’s Republic of China, and could even be an indication that one day the US might cut off its diplomatic relations with the CCP altogether. 

Why do they say this? And is it possible? Today, let’s discuss these issues.

 Early Departure with No Reasons Provided

 Many people noticed that the US Embassy in Beijing did not give any reasons for Branstad’s early departure. The press statement only talked about his achievements in the past 3 years, and that “The Ambassador will return to Iowa after leaving Beijing.”

In the meantime, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sent 3 tweets on the same day to praise Branstad’s “service to the American people.”

Although Fox did mention that Branstad could help President Trump with his re-election campaign after he leaves Beijing, that was only what Branstad intends to do after he leaves, not the reason why he decided to step down early.

 Battles over an Article

 To understand the reason behind this event, we need to check out another very interesting incident that happened right before this.

On August 26, the US Embassy in Beijing contacted the CCP’s mouthpiece People’s Daily, and requested that they publish Ambassador Branstad’s article titled “Resetting the Relationship Based on Reciprocity”. The article’s main point is that the “imbalanced” relationship between the US and China needs to be reset based on the principle of reciprocity.  

On Sep. 9, the People Daily rejected this request, saying that the content of the article “is riddled with flaws, which is seriously inconsistent with the facts and is not in line with the criteria that People’s Daily, as a well-known, serious and professional media, has always upheld for the selection and publication of its articles. If the United States still wishes to publish the article in the People’s Daily, it should make substantive changes to the article in the light of the facts and in accordance with the principles of equality and mutual respect. ”

Secretary Pompeo immediately sent a tweet as a response, saying that “The Chinese Communist Party complains about a lack of fair and reciprocal treatment with the U.S. At the same time, the CCP refused to run Ambassador Branstad’s op-ed in the People’s Daily, while their ambassador is free to publish in any U.S. media outlet.”

On the same day, the US Department of State published a press statement titled “The Hypocrisy of the PRC’s Propaganda System”, saying that “The People’s Daily’s response once again exposes the Chinese Communist Party’s fear of free speech and serious intellectual debate – as well as Beijing’s hypocrisy when it complains about lack of fair and reciprocal treatment in other countries…If Communist China is sincere about becoming a mature power and strengthening relations with the free world, General Secretary Xi Jinping’s government would respect the right for Western diplomats to speak directly to the Chinese people, allow foreign journalists back into China, and stop the intimidation and harassment of investigative journalists, foreign and Chinese, who strive to uphold the integrity of the fifth estate to serve the public good. ” 

The website of the US Embassy in China not only immediately published a Chinese version of the above statement but also posted it on its social media accounts in China, including Weibo and WeChat

Initially, the statement survived on Weibo and WeChat but was banned from being shared. People couldn’t post comments as well.

Several hours later, it was deleted.

Then, several days later, Ambassador Branstad announced his early retirement.

 Is the US Setting Up a “Trap” for the CCP?

 So these are the events on the surface that we can see.  But there are more under the surface that we didn’t see.

What are the things that we didn’t get to see?

 According to many Chinese analysts, as well as the CCP’s spokesman Zhao Lijian, the US Embassy’s request to ask the People’s Daily to publish Branstad’s article is a “deliberately designed trap” to find fault with the CCP. Zhao Lijian said at a press conference, “It is false that the U.S. side wished to publish an article, and it is true that it set out to frame the Chinese side.”

 Many Chinese analysts agreed to Zhao’s point. Their reasoning is that Ambassador Branstad knew very well that the People’s Daily would not dare to publish his article. But why would he still do such a “useless” thing knowingly? It was because the US government wanted to show its people as well as the world the true face of the CCP, to win more understanding and support for its tougher China policies.

 According to one Chinese commentator Qin Peng, the fact that the US Embassy in China published the statement that sharply criticizes the CCP in Chinese language and on its Chinese social media accounts indicates three things:

  1. It is the US that proactively attacked the CCP;

  2. The statement didn’t use “China” to refer to China like before, but used the “People’s Republic of China” instead. As “the People’s Republic of China” is usually used as opposed to “The Republic of China”, this could be an indication that the US was acknowledging that there is a “The Republic of China”.

  3. This also means that Trump has made up his mind to destroy the CCP.

 A De Facto Downgraded Relationship

 When an official resigns early, there could be several reasons:

1. He has a health problem and cannot work.  

2. His supervisor is unhappy about him and wants to replace him.

3. He is unhappy about his job and wants to quit. 

 Judging from the fact that Secretary Pompeo spoke highly of Branstad, and Branstad is going to campaign for President Trump, we could see that none of the three reasons applies to him. Then the most likely reason is that the US government wants him to leave early to create a de facto situation, in which there will be no US Ambassador in China. So the US wants to deliberately downgrade its diplomatic relations with the CCP. 

 Please also note that the US didn’t announce a successor for Branstad. If after Branstad leaves in early October as planned, there is still no one to take over his post, this kind of situation may remain until the US election is over in Nov., or even after Trump finishes his current term of office in next Jan. 

 Another Unprecedented Situation

 If this really is the case, it will be another unprecedented situation between the US and Communist China. Many Chinese people still remember that during the chaotic times of China’s civil war in the late 1940s,  when the CCP overturned the legitimate government of the Kuomintang,  the US didn’t recall its ambassador. 

Instead, even after the CCP occupied Nanjing, which was previously the capital city of  Kuomintang’s regime, the US ambassador of that time, John Leighton Stuart, did not leave China. Instead, he started to talk with the CCP’s representative, only 13 days after the CCP took over Nanjing. The US government was observing the CCP’s regime and considering whether to establish a diplomatic relationship. Stuart was only called back to the US after the CCP leader Mao Zedong published an article “On the People’s Democratic Dictatorship”, showing that the CCP had chosen the Soviet Union over the US. 

However, before he left, Stuart was still trying to visit Beijing to negotiate with the CCP’s top leaders.

 So, in this sense, the current situation is more serious than the time in 1949, when the CCP just overthrew the Kuomintang government, which had a strong and good relationship with the US.

 Downgrading the CCP, Upgrading Taiwan

 While the US is downgrading its diplomatic relations with the CCP’s regime, it is “upgrading” its relationship with Taiwan, or, the Republic of China. Yesterday, on Sep 16, only 2 days after the US Embassy in Beijing announced Brandstad’s early departure, the US Department of State announced US Under Secretary of State Keith Krach’s visit to Taiwan.  

The Foreign Ministry of Taiwan also announced that during Krach’s visit to Taiwan from today, which is Sep 17 to Sep 19, he will be meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen and other senior officials, and attending a memorial service for former President Lee Teng-hui.

This is, no doubt, a huge diplomatic victory for Taiwan, as at one point in 1979, the US had granted CCP’s China full diplomatic recognition, while severing normal ties with Taiwan. 

So, the contrast between how the US is treating the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of China, is staggering. Some commentators are even predicting a visit to Taiwan by Secretary Pompeo, or even President Trump himself, in the near future.

 Well, just like I said in my previous show “The CCP, Hong Kong, Taiwan, & US: Romance of 4 Kingdoms”, when some forces are rising, other forces are falling. We are not only witnessing big, big changes unfolding right in front of our eyes, but are also given the opportunities to participate, and play a part in these historical events and changes. And I’ll discuss further one of the most important changes of our time, the possible ways and steps of the CCP’s demise next time. So stay tuned.

 That’s all for today. Thanks for watching. Truth saves lives. Please do subscribe to my channel, share it with friends and family, and check out my other videos.

 9/17/2020

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